November 2025: China on my mind
Newsworthy in early November 2025, regarding China from a European perspective
I feel a bit sorry for the gloomy tone of this post (at least from a European vantage point), but the developments below are worth pointing and discussing.
↗️ in increasing order of significance, with a tie for the last two:
- november 05: Shein opens within BHV, a Parisian flagship store, triggers protests
- november 12: JD, broadly comparable to a B2B Amazon, takes an increased participation in European retail stores - archived version
- november 11: How the world’s biggest mining project is a win for China - archived version
- november 12: Can anything halt the decline of German industry? - archived version
The decline of the German industry relative to the Chinese industry is not a surprise as it was decades in the making. This is still a shocking wake up call to see Germany suffering a trade deficit in manufacturing equipment with China for the first time, in 2025:
This has dire implications for Germany itself but also directly for Europe. Germany is the prime contributor to the EU budget which is an engine for redistribution, investment, research and education, cultural initiatives all across European countries. If you live in Europe, you must be familiar with these signs on public buildings being renovated (schools, museums, infrastructures…), “EU participated to the funding of this equipment”.
If and as Germany’s welfare state shrinks because of the relative decline of their industries, Germany will reduce their participation to the EU budget. By the way all other EU countries are in the same situation as Germany relative to China, so that is going to be a general movement. It is just that Germany was anchored in everyone’s psyche as the “leader of the European and world industry and structural net exporter of machinery”. China was considered as playing catch up but still behind.
What to make of it in the coming years?
- in areas where EU investment matters (and name one where it doesn’t?), we should brace for more difficult times. Culture, education, research.
- increase in defense spending by Germany and other EU countries as a way to maintain their industry afloat. Not a reassuring playbook, if history is any guide.
This particular consequence is explicitly mentioned in the article above:
“Some are holding out hope that demand for defence will help rescue Germany’s industrial sector”
(and read the following paragraphs that substantiate the argument)
- increased tensions between local and global powers in Africa. Also not reassuring.
- other broad consequences I discussed in my blog post from last month
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